Iowa poll shows Trump’s support marginally increased after New York conviction

The Biden administration and Democratic prosecutors have launched numerous criminal prosecutions against former President Donald Trump with the clear aim of demoralizing his supporters and swaying undecided independent voters.

Despite Trump’s recent conviction in New York for falsifying business records, voters in Iowa continue to overwhelmingly support him over incumbent President Joe Biden for the upcoming election in November, according to the Des Moines Register.

This trend seems consistent with other state and national polls that indicate minimal overall impact on the presidential race following Trump’s guilty verdict.

According to a recent poll by the Register, 50% of voters in the Hawkeye State favored former President Trump, while 32% supported President Biden.

Additionally, 9% were aligned with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and the remaining voters were either undecided or backed other third-party candidates.

This marks a slight increase for Trump since February, when he led Biden by 48-33%, with 15% supporting other candidates.

One resident of Waterloo, 63-year-old Donald Share, stated that he became a Republican because of Trump and remained steadfast in his support despite Trump’s legal troubles in New York, viewing it as reinforcement for his backing of the embattled presumptive GOP nominee.

“His convictions on these charges are part of the reason my mind is made up,” he said. “The more they try to get him out of the picture, the stronger they make him. I, for one, believe that the charges are bogus.”

Certainly, while this sentiment is articulated by just one voter in Iowa, it seems highly probable that he is not alone in his perspective.

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This assumption is supported by other polls conducted in Iowa and elsewhere.

The most recent Des Moines Register poll results are expected to further solidify former President Trump’s substantial lead over President Biden, standing at 11.5 points according to the RealClearPolling average for Iowa.

If this trend continues, Trump would secure a more significant victory over Biden in the upcoming November election compared to 2020, when he won by 8.2 points, and in 2016, when he defeated Hillary Clinton by 9.5 points.

The Democrats and the media had been expecting, or even banking on, a significant decline in support for former President Trump following his conviction in New York last month.

However, according to the RCP average of national 2024 general election polls, this is not exactly what occurred.

While Trump’s polling support initially dropped from 47.6% to 45.1% after the conviction, it has since rebounded to 45.8%.

Interestingly, President Biden’s numbers followed a similar trajectory over the same period, and Trump’s lead has remained virtually unchanged — from 0.9 points before the conviction to 0.8 points now.

Furthermore, RCP’s data indicates that Trump continues to maintain similar leads over his Democratic rival in all seven of the most important battleground states, suggesting that his conviction has had little to no impact on the electorate.

Lastly, when comparing the current 2024 race with the 2020 race, where Biden led Trump by 8.8 points on the same date four years ago, it appears that Trump is on track for electoral victory despite facing legal challenges from Democratic prosecutors and judges.

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