Iran Advises Proxies to De-escalate During Trump Era

Gustavo Petro isn’t the only global leader taking notice of American power as Donald Trump makes a return to office. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has even been seen sporting a flak jacket during public appearances, possibly acknowledging Israel’s renewed dominance in air and intelligence capabilities.

The Telegraph reports this shift as part of a broader strategy change in response to Trump’s return, signaling a recognition of American military might.

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Reports indicate that Khamenei has instructed his proxies to halt offensive operations temporarily. This move points to a direct response to Trump’s renewed presence and the perceived “existential” threat it brings.

For the past four years, Iran didn’t see the same level of threat, but now, the regime is taking a cautious approach. According to The Telegraph, Iranian-backed militias have been advised to avoid actions that could escalate tensions in the region.

Iranian officials have communicated clear instructions to these groups, particularly in Iraq and Yemen, to refrain from targeting American assets. They have been warned against using Iranian weapons and instructed to maintain defensive positions. The idea is to steer clear of any provocations that might invite American retaliation. This change in posture highlights the significant impact of Trump’s leadership style on international relations.

The contrast in leadership styles between Trump and his predecessor, Joe Biden, is stark. While the military policies in the region might seem similar on the surface, Trump’s approach is distinct in its assertiveness. Unlike Biden, who showed reluctance in some military actions, Trump has been unafraid to project American power to serve national interests. This difference was evident when Trump recently put Petro in the spotlight over immigration issues, forcing South American countries to rethink their strategies.

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South American leaders face new challenges, but Petro, in particular, may need to worry about how his actions affect his political career. Meanwhile, Iran is acutely aware of the existential threat posed by Trump’s approach. Throughout his first term, Trump demonstrated his willingness to take decisive actions, such as withdrawing from a flawed deal with Tehran and targeting key figures like Qassem Suleimani, in response to threats against American forces.

Under Biden, Tehran felt emboldened, leading to increased aggression from groups like the Houthis. These groups have targeted maritime traffic in the Red Sea with Iranian support, attempting to punish the West for its support of Israel. In contrast, Trump’s return has prompted a reevaluation of these strategies. Tehran is now signaling a pause in their activities, recognizing the seriousness with which Trump approaches threats.

For more than a year, Houthis have used missiles and drones to disrupt commercial shipping in the Red Sea, once a bustling trade route. In response, shipping companies have rerouted vessels around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope.

Since the recent escalation in Gaza, the Houthis have attacked over a hundred vessels. However, they recently communicated a willingness to hold off on targeting U.S. and British ships during a cease-fire, releasing crew members from a seized cargo vessel as a gesture.

Despite these developments, the Houthis remain defiant, continuing to target Israeli vessels. They’ve attacked ships with little or no connection to Israel, showing a willingness to resume attacks if cease-fire agreements fail. Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi has expressed this determination, signaling a readiness to restart hostilities if conditions change.

The leadership gap left by Biden’s administration allowed adversaries to exploit the situation, but Trump’s firm stance is creating a different dynamic.

Biden’s approach, viewed as indecisive, left a void in the Western coalition’s leadership. This absence had repercussions both domestically and internationally, as adversaries capitalized on the lack of strong governance.

Zaid Jilani, in a series of social media posts, highlighted the need for decisive governance. While not a Trump supporter, Jilani recognizes the importance of leadership in achieving national security goals. He pointed out that Biden’s lack of urgency in foreign policy matters led to prolonged issues, contrasting this with Trump’s results-oriented approach.

Trump’s leadership style has brought about significant changes in a short period, underscoring the importance of resolute governance. The key question now is how many more opportunities Trump will have to demonstrate this leadership as the world adjusts to America’s renewed assertiveness.